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MAP D-PHASEA Forecast Demonstration Project within WWRPFirst MAP D-PHASE Scientific Meeting 6-8 November 2006, Vienna, Austria |
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Programme
| short abstract | long abstract | presentation | ||
| Monday November 6th | ||||
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| C. Schär, C. Hohenegger, S. Jaun, M. Verbunt
Key note I: Predictability of alpine precipitation and floods: between hope and despair | ||||
| Mathias Rotach
Key note II: Scientific challenges for MAP-D-PHASE |
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| Session 1: Ensemble Prediction Systems | chair: Tiziana Paccagnella | |||
| Ken Mylne, Neill Bowler, Alberto Arribas, Sarah John, Tim Legg
MOGREPS A Short-Range Regional Ensemble for Europe |
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| Jose A. Garcia-Moya, A. Callado, C. Santos, D. Santos- Munoz, J. Simarro
Multimodel Ensemble for Short-Range Predictability |
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| Yong Wang
Dealing with the uncertainties in the initial conditions in ALADIN-LAEF |
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| Andrea Montani
The COSMO-LEPS system at ECMWF: present status and future plans |
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| Chiara Marsigli
Use of model perturbations for short-range ensemble forecasting |
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| Michael Denhard
The D-PHASE MICRO-PEPS |
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| Session 2: High Resolution Modelling | chair: Ken Mylne | |||
| Silvio Davolio, Andrea Buzzi, P. Malguzzi
Preliminary experience using MOLOCH in real-time configuration at ISAC-CNR |
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| Yann Seity
Numerical simulations with the AROME high resolution model |
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| Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Michel Desgangé, Jean Côté, Sylvie Gravel, Claude Girard, Amin Erfani
High-resolution operational modelling over complex terrain with the Canadian GEM model |
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| Günther Zängl
The north-Alpine flooding events of May 1999 and August 2005: Microphysical and multi-scale dynamical aspects of orographic precipitation enhancement |
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| Matthias Grzeschik, Florian Zus, Hans-Stefan Bauer, Volker Wulfmeyer, Jens Wickert, Galina Dick, Gerd Gendt
Assimilation of GPS Water Vapor Oberservations into the MM5 4DVAR System |
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| Session 3: Related projects | chair: Mathias Rotach | |||
| Andreas Behrendt, Volker Wulfmeyer, Christoph Kottmeier, Ulrich Corsmeier, Martin Hagen, George Craig, Hans-Stefan Bauer, and COPS ISSC
COPS: A Research and Development Project interlinked with D-PHASE |
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| Claudia Wunram
Concept of COPS long term data archive |
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| Tuesday November 7th | ||||
| Session 3: Related projects (ctd) | chair: Mathias Rotach | |||
| Jiandong Gong, Yihong Duan, Guo Deng, Yinglin Li, Hua Tian, Li Li
A review of WWRP meso-scale ensemble prediction research and development project for Beijing 2008 Olympics Game (WWRP/B08RDP) |
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| Elizabeth Ebert, Tom Keenan, Jianjie Wang
The WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) |
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| Session 4: Hydrometeorological flood forecast | chair: Roberto Ranzi & Christoph Hegg | |||
| G. Grossi, B.Bacchi, Roberto Buizza, Andrea Buzzi, P. Malguzzi, Roberto Ranzi
Toward the MAP D-PHASE experiment of a Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System |
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| Silke Dierer
Improving the forecast of flash floods: First results within the PREVIEW project |
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| Harald Kunstmann, Andreas Marx, Johannes Werhahn, Gerhard Smiatek
Early Flood Warning for Alpine catchments through Coupled Precipitation / River Runoff - Forecasts |
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| T.Diomede, S.Davolio, C.Marsigli, M.M Miglietta , A. Morgillo, A.Moscatello
LAM multi model precipitation forecasts driving discharge predictions |
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| Christoph Hegg, M. Zappa
YES/NO decision and probabilistic flood forecasting. How can MAP D-PHASE contribute to educate the end-users? |
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| Session 5: Analysis & Nowcasting | chair: Hans Volkert | |||
| Thomas Haiden
Combination of nowcasting and ensemble methods in quantitative precipitation forecasting |
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| Urs Germann, Alessandro Hering, Marc Berenguer, Daniel Sempere-Torres, Giorgio Salvade
Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for nowcasting and hydrology in the Alps |
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| Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, Marco Boscacci, Stephane Senesi
Operational thunderstorm nowcasting in the Alpine region using 3D-radar severe weather parameters and lightning data |
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| Benedikt Bica
High resolution precipitation analysis over complex terrain and recognition of orographic patterns in meteorological fields |
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| Stefan Schneider, Manfred Dorninger, Reinhold Steinacker
Heavy rain and flooding in Central Europe in August 2005 |
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| Barbara Chimani, Wolfgang Gepp, Reinhold Steinacker, Matthias Ratheiser, Manfred Dorninger, Stefan Schneider, Simon Tschannett
A new 4D variational data analysis scheme in the framework of VERA |
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| Poster session | chair: Marco Arpagaus | |||
| Felix Ament
Contribution to MAP D-PHASE: aLMo2 |
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| Chiara Marsigli
First results of an intercomparison between COSMO-LEPS and PEPS |
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| L. Montanari, C. Marsigli, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella, S. Pecora, F. Tonelli
Development of an ensemble flood forecasting system for the Po river basin |
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| Peter Krahe, Jan Bliefernicht, Karlheinz Daamen, Christian Ebert, Uwe Ehret, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Kunz, Janus Willem Schipper, Susanne Theis
The benefits of probabilistic flood forecasting in the River Iller basin |
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| Günther Zängl
A high-resolution model validation for two north-Alpine flood cases |
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| Petra Friederichs, Armin Mathes, Andreas Hense
Statistical downscaling of extreme precipitation events in terms of quantiles |
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| Wen-Yih Sun, Jiun-Dar Chern, Ki-Hong Min
Snow-Soil Parameterization and Its Effect on 1997 Spring Flooding in Northern Plains |
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| Frederic Jordan, Jean-Louis Boillat, Jerome Dubois, Anton Schleiss
MINERVE, a flood predicition and management tool for the Rhone river basin |
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| Wednesday November 8th | ||||
| Session 6: Verification | chair: Elizabeth Ebert & Chiara Marsigli | |||
| Paolo Ambrosetti, Lionel Fontannaz, Eugen Müller, Marco Stoll
Subjective evaluation by atmospheric forecasters |
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| Manfred Dorninger, Theresa Gorgas, Reinhold Steinacker
NWP-model verification with VERA over complex terrain |
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| Chiara Marsigli
High-resolution ensemble system verification: application to COSMO-LEPS |
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| Christian Keil
A novel displacement based measure to assess the quality of mesoscale EPS forecasts |
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| Elizabeth Ebert
Fuzzy verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts |
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| Johannes Jenker
Synoptic impacts on the quality of the aLMo's precipitation analysis over Switzerland |
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| Marcus Paulat
Novel approaches for the verification of high-resolution QPFs over Germany |
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| Simon Jaun, André Walser, Massimiliano Zappa, Bodo Ahrens, Joachim Gurtz, Christoph Schär
On evaluation strategies for a coupled atmospheric-hydrologic ensemble prediction system |
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Local Organiser: Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna