Impact Factor … und tschüss???

George A. Lozano, Vincent Lariviere, Yves Gingras: The wea­ke­ning rela­ti­onship bet­ween the Impact Factor and papers› cita­ti­ons in the digi­tal age (Submitted on 19 May 2012)

Abstract: Historically, papers have been phy­si­cally bound to the jour­nal in which they were publis­hed but in the elec­tro­nic age papers are avail­able indi­vi­dually, no lon­ger tied to their respec­tive jour­nals. Hence, papers now can be read and cited based on their own merits, inde­pen­dently of the journal’s phy­si­cal avai­l­a­bi­lity, repu­ta­tion, or Impact Factor. We com­pare the strength of the rela­ti­onship bet­ween jour­nals› Impact Factors and the actual cita­ti­ons recei­ved by their respec­tive papers from 1902 to 2009. Throughout most of the 20th cen­tury, papers› cita­tion rates were incre­a­sin­gly lin­ked to their respec­tive jour­nals› Impact Factors. However, since 1990, the advent of the digi­tal age, the strength of the rela­tion bet­ween Impact Factors and paper cita­ti­ons has been decre­a­sing. This decrease began soo­ner in phy­sics, a field that was qui­cker to make the tran­si­tion into the elec­tro­nic domain. Furthermore, since 1990, the pro­por­tion of highly cited papers com­ing from highly cited jour­nals has been decre­a­sing, and accor­din­gly, the pro­por­tion of highly cited papers not com­ing from highly cited jour­nals has also been incre­a­sing. Should this pat­tern con­ti­nue, it might bring an end to the use of the Impact Factor as a way to eva­luate the qua­lity of jour­nals, papers and researchers.

http://arxiv.org/abs/1205.4328

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