Abstract – Ueno

System Dynamics Analysis on Rural Areas Policy

Shinya UENO (Kumamoto University)

The purpose of this study is to clarify the structural mechanism of complex problems of rural areas by system dynamics analysis. Many kinds of measures have been implemented as policies, such as depopulation policy, job opportunity creation, maintaining of medical and welfare services, and keeping community function by community building activities. Simultaneously, the phenomenon of under-population in rural areas has been promoted by supporting excess concentration of population and industrial activities in metropolitan areas. Problems of mountainous areas are ill-structured; generally policies to counteract a problem may cause another type of problem. In this analysis the complex structure of problems is represented as a causal loop diagram. It shows a system with all its constituent components and their interactions with stocks, flows, feedback loops and time delays. It becomes possible to ascertain a system’s behavior over a certain time period with this simulation. The result indicates the effectiveness of policies for prevention purposes and countermeasure policies separately.